Every year on Black Friday, many consumers anticipate one thing: spending a little bit of money for bag loads of items. However, according to CNBC, in recent years Black Friday has been declining, leaving some to wonder why.
Traditionally, Black Friday brings to mind huge crowds in giant malls, dramatic sales that drop to rock-bottom prices, and eager shoppers willing to wrestle one another for exclusive deals. But as of Black Friday 2025, the landscape looks noticeably different. With later opening hours and fewer people showing up in stores, online shopping has begun to take over the event. In fact, this Black Friday 2025 began in September, as many customers grew cautious of deals that seemed too good to be true.
Large retail stores such as Walmart, which once heavily participated in in-store Black Friday events, now host short-term online deals lasting only a day or two for occasions like Cyber Monday or mid-November weekends. During Thanksgiving, many stores chose to remain closed while offering multiple online promotions instead. Other major retailers, including Kohl’s launched their holiday sales earlier in the season in an effort to attract more customers and encourage larger purchases.
According to data from the National Retail Federation, in-store Black Friday purchases saw a sharp increase from 2018 to 2020, followed by a drop and then a slow rise. However, after that decline, in-store sales have never fully recovered. Meanwhile, online sales have continued to skyrocket and remain high through today. Additionally, statistics from the National Retail Federation show that between 2017 and 2024, the highest number of Black Friday and Cyber Monday shoppers occurred in 2023, with about 200.4 million people. Since 2021, Black Friday has not returned to its previous strength; 2021 saw a 25.3% decrease, and from 2022 to 2024, the average percent change was only 2.6%, highlighting the dramatic drop Black Friday has experienced.
So, the next time Black Friday arrives, consumers might not feel the same excitement from seeing a 50-80% off in stores, knowing they can simply order online. Or, the opposite may occur, with shoppers becoming increasingly wary of deals that appear to be bait. Either way, Black Friday’s decline has been ongoing since after 2021, suggesting that waiting until the day itself to splurge may no longer be necessary. Plenty of deals now appear before and after Black Friday, waiting to be found.
